A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
