Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
